162
KSI Total
2015–2025 excl. 2020
26
Fatal Collisions
30 people killed
671
Visible Injuries
City streets
1,938
Total Collisions
City streets only
8.4%
Overall KSI Rate
162 / 1,938
20.5%
Alcohol KSI Rate
vs 7.1% non-alcohol
Annual collision trend by severity
2015–2025 excl. 2020 — gap in x-axis marks excluded year
Severity breakdown
All city street collisions
Collision type distribution
Count by type
Primary collision factor
Top contributing factors
Collisions by hour of day
Red=late night · Yellow=PM peak
Lighting conditions
At time of collision
Weather conditions
At time of collision
Motor vehicle involved with
What did the at-fault vehicle collide with?
Day of week distribution
All city street collisions by day
High Injury Network Explorer
Safe System Score = (KSI/Total KSI × 30) + (Total/City Total × 20) + (Ped/Total Ped × 20) + (Bike/Total Bike × 20) · Click row to expand
Fatal present
KSI rate ≥10%
Standard HIN
Period Comparison
2015–2019 (5 yrs, pre-COVID) vs 2021–2025 (5 yrs, post-COVID) Equal 5-year windows · 2020 excluded · All metrics normalized per year or as ratesKSI rate per year
Blue=2015–19 · Orange=2021–25 · The gap shows the era shift
Collisions per year by era
Volume trend (2020 excluded)
Collision type — KSI rate shift
Blue=2015–19 · Orange=2021–25
Primary collision factor — volume/yr
Is the mix of causes changing?
HIN Corridor Rank Changes: 2015–2019 vs 2021–2025
EMERGING entered HIN post-2020. WORSENING KSI/yr increased. IMPROVING KSI/yr fell. STABLE minimal change.
Top corridors — Era A (2015–19)
KSI count · pre-COVID baseline
Top corridors — Era B (2021–25)
KSI count · post-COVID reality
Top intersections — Era A (2015–19)
KSI at intersection collisions only
Top intersections — Era B (2021–25)
KSI at intersection collisions only
The Safety Story: 2015–2019 vs 2021–2025
Equal 5-year periods · 2020 excluded · All stats normalized for fair comparisonFewer Crashes, Far More Deadly
+118.1% KSI rate
KSI rate rose from 5.54% (2015–19) to 12.08% (2021–25) — a 118.1% increase. Volume dropped ~24%/yr, but each crash is now twice as likely to kill or seriously injure. Tracy’s post-COVID severity surge is the largest in the region.
Speed Crashes: 573% More Lethal
1.5% → 10.1%
Speed-related KSI rate surged from 1.5% to 10.1% (573% increase). Each speed crash is now dramatically more deadly. Post-pandemic higher operating speeds and reduced enforcement are the likely drivers.
Tracy Blvd: Most Alarming Emergence
0 KSI → 9 KSI
Tracy Blvd had zero KSI in 2015–2019. By 2021–2025 it reached 9 KSI with an 18% KSI rate — a complete post-COVID emergence. This corridor needs immediate intervention before the pattern solidifies.
HIN Fragmentation: Danger Is Spreading
9 new corridors
The HIN gained 9 new corridors in 2021–25 not present before. Only 7 corridors persist across both eras. Danger has spread city-wide rather than concentrating in prior hotspots.
Alcohol KSI: Modest Improvement
34.4% → 16.8%
Alcohol’s share of KSI fell from 34.4% to 16.8%. At 20.5%, alcohol crashes remain 2.9× more deadly than non-alcohol. Enforcement gains must be sustained.
Broadside KSI Rate Doubled
6.3% → 9.8%
Broadside KSI rate more than doubled — the fastest-worsening type in Tracy. With 701 broadside collisions and 56 KSI, signal and left-turn failures at 11th St and Grant Line Rd are the primary cause.
Pedestrian Risk Surging Post-COVID
21.3% → 16.8%
Pedestrian share of KSI shifted from 21.3% to 16.8%. Dark ped KSI rate is 46.5% — a 4.1× multiplier over daytime. Physical crossing protection is critical on Grant Line Rd and Corral Hollow Rd.
Intersection Hotspots: Persistent Danger
7 persist
11th St & Lammers Rd, Grant Line Rd & Lincoln Blvd, and Corral Hollow Rd & Tennis Ln appear in both eras with elevated KSI risk. These three intersections warrant immediate capital investment.
Dark KSI Rate: Fastest Growing Factor
11.7% → 19.3%
Dark-condition KSI rate surged from 11.7% to 19.3% — a 65% increase. Lighting deficiencies on 11th St, Grant Line Rd, and Corral Hollow Rd are directly tied to this trend. LED lighting upgrades deliver the highest BCR return.
AI-Powered Safety Insights
Multivariate patterns · 2015–2025 (excl. 2020) · Hard-to-discern findings ranked by policy impact
Alcohol Multiplier Effect
2.9×
Alcohol KSI rate: 20.5% vs 7.1% non-alcohol. 9.5% of collisions but 23.5% of all KSI.
DUI EnforcementDarkness Amplifies Ped Risk
33.9%
Of ped collisions occur in dark. Ped dark KSI rate: 46.5% vs 11.4% daylight — a 4.1× multiplier. Highest single risk factor in Tracy.
Street LightingCrosswalk Provides Limited Safety
30.3%
KSI rate outside crosswalk. In-crosswalk rate: 16.4%. Both settings carry high risk — physical protection needed at all ped–vehicle conflict points.
Ped InfrastructureLate Night KSI Spike
17.6%
KSI rate 0–5 AM is 3.6× higher than midday (4.9%). Only 7.6% of collisions but concentrated fatal risk. Late-night speed, impairment, and reduced lighting create compound danger.
High-Severity WindowAlcohol + Dark: Compound Risk
25.0%
Alcohol AND dark: KSI rate hits 25.0% — 3.0× city average. 5.6% of collisions, disproportionate harm.
Compound RiskWeekend Night Pattern
8.3%
Fri/Sat/Sun after 9 PM: 8.3% KSI rate. 48 collisions in this window. Targeted enforcement on these nights addresses disproportionate fatal risk.
Enforcement TimingAnnual KSI vs total collisions
Volume declining but KSI rate surging — the key Tracy trend
Top 5 corridor persistence
KSI year-by-year per corridor
KSI rate by hour of day
Risk per collision at each hour — not volume
Pedestrian collisions: Daylight vs Dark by location
Where and when peds face highest risk
Collision Type × Severity Matrix
Collision Severity
Fatal
Severe Injury
Visible Injury
Complaint of Pain
Project Location Map — City of Tracy
🔵 Plan A · 🟠 Plan B · 🟢 Plan C Click marker for detailsHSIP Cycle 13 — Grant Recommendations
Prioritized based on 5-cycle HSIP history (C8–C12) + 2015–2025 Tracy SWITRS data
Portfolio Target:
$14.5M–$27.2M
$1.55M
HSIP Won (C12)
3 projects
3
Projects Funded
C12
6
C13 Recommendations
BCR + VRU + Set-Aside
HSIP Grant Intelligence Module
Cross-Cycle Analysis C8–C12 · Countermeasure Trends · C12 Report
$1.55M
Tracy HSIP Won
C12 (3 projects)
3
Projects Funded
C12 only
$1.15B
Program Total
1,281 projects C8–C12
$14–$27M
C13 Portfolio Target
6 recommendations
Tracy HSIP Application History
C13 Strategy — Countermeasure Trends
🚀 Rising Countermeasures
Gaining frequency & funding — prioritize for C13
LPI: 0→33 projects (C8→C12) · +33
RRFB/Beacons: 11→57 · +46
Retroreflective Backplates: 1→23 · +22
Bike Lanes/Buffered: 14→31 · +17
Raised Medians: 8→19 · +11
📅 Declining Countermeasures
Losing funding share — supplement but don’t lead with these
Signal Timing Only: 45→12 · -33
Striping/Delineation Only: 28→9 · -19
Guardrail: 22→8 · -14
Signing Only: 14→6 · -8
Rumble Strips Only: 11→4 · -7
C13 Key Intelligence Findings
🎯 BCR Sweet Spot
$1.5M–$4M
Optimal BCR grant range in C12. Tracy should target $1.8–3.5M per BCR app. Stack 3+ countermeasures for highest BCR score.
✓ Best Win Strategy
3-CM Stack
C12 winners averaged 3+ countermeasures per application. LPI + APS + Backplates in a single BCR+VRU hybrid gives Tracy the strongest competitive position.
⚠ Tracy Opportunity
118% KSI surge
Tracy’s 118.1% KSI rate increase is one of the largest in the region. This post-COVID trend is HSIP’s highest-priority use case — maximizing C13 applications is critical.
🚗 Speed Factor
10.1% KSI rate
Unsafe Speed KSI rate surged from 1.5% to 10.1% post-COVID. Physical speed calming now outperforms signage-only in BCR calculations.
🚶 Ped Dark Risk
46.5% KSI
Peds in dark face a 4.1× multiplier in Tracy. This is among the region’s most extreme dark/day ratios. Lighting grants have the fastest BCR turnaround.
📊 Set-Aside Strategy
88% win rate
SA-Ped had 88% win rate in C12. Submit 2 SA-Ped apps targeting Grant Line Rd and Corral Hollow Rd separately to maximize award potential.