Safety case & program alignment
+43.4% KSI rate post-COVID — San Pablo's severity crisis requires urgent intervention
San Pablo’s KSI rate shifted from 10.04% (2015–19) to 14.4% (2021–25) — a +43.4% increase. Volume fell but each crash is significantly more likely to kill or severely injure — a severity crisis, not a volume crisis. 56 post-COVID KSI across 35 HIN corridors demand immediate targeted investment.
Active SS4A partner — CCTA FY2024 grant + CCTSAP 2024 action plan foundation
San Pablo is a named partner city in CCTA's FY2024 SS4A Planning & Demonstration Grant ($1.6M awarded November 2024). The CCTA Countywide Comprehensive Transportation Safety Action Plan (CCTSAP 2024) provides the action plan foundation for all CC cities. Upon completion of the CCTA FY2024 grant deliverables and the USDOT Self-Certification Worksheet, San Pablo is positioned to apply for a FY2026 SS4A Implementation Grant targeting $5–12M federal.
12
Fatalities
city streets
35
HIN corridors
identified
CCTSAP 2024
Action plan
foundation
Project breakdown by category (2021–2025 crash data)
| Category | Projects | Cost Est. | Focus locations |
|---|
| HIN Intersections |
4 |
$2.2M |
EL PORTAL DR & MISSION BE, RUMRILL BL & SANFORD AV — ranked by 2021–25 KSI |
| Corridor Programs |
3 |
$5.4M |
EL PORTAL DR, RUMRILL BL, SAN PABLO AV — LPI + lighting + raised median |
| Citywide Programs |
3 |
$1.6M |
LPI+APS rollout, LED intersection lighting, speed feedback |
⚡ Action Required: Complete USDOT Self-Certification Worksheet before May 26 deadline
The CCTSAP 2024 (adopted by CCTA) provides the countywide action plan foundation. San Pablo must complete the USDOT Self-Certification Worksheet confirming the CCTSAP satisfies all required SS4A action plan components. If all components are confirmed → submit Implementation Grant directly. If gaps exist, include supplemental planning activity. Recommend submitting completed worksheet to USDOT for pre-application review (due April 24, 2026).
Priority SS4A projects — 2021–2025 crash data
Tier 1 — Fatal & high-KSI corridors (2021–2025)
| Location | KSI | Fatal | Countermeasures |
EL PORTAL DR COR #1
41 crashes · 11 KSI · 0 fatal · 🔁 Persistent: era B 5 KSI |
11 |
0 |
HAWK beacon, Raised median, LPI+APS all signals, LED lighting, HV crosswalks, Ped countdown signals |
RUMRILL BL COR #2
98 crashes · 10 KSI · 2 fatal · 🔁 Persistent: era B 0 KSI |
10 |
2 |
HAWK beacon, Protected LT, LPI+APS, LED lighting, Ped refuge islands, RRFBs, Speed calming |
SAN PABLO AV COR #3
114 crashes · 9 KSI · 1 fatal · 🔁 Persistent: era B 1 KSI |
9 |
1 |
HAWK beacon, Class IV bike lanes, RRFB crossings, Ped refuge islands, LED lighting, LPI at signals |
SAN PABLO DAM RD COR #4
65 crashes · 9 KSI · 1 fatal · 📈 Worsening: era B 6 KSI |
9 |
1 |
HAWK beacon, LPI, Bulb-outs, HV crosswalk, APS, Signal upgrade, Speed feedback signs |
EL PORTAL DR & MISSION BELL DR INT #1
7 crashes · 3 KSI · 0 fatal |
3 |
0 |
LPI, Bulb-outs, HV crosswalk, APS, Signal upgrade, Ped countdown |
RUMRILL BL & SANFORD AV INT #2
7 crashes · 3 KSI · 0 fatal |
3 |
0 |
LPI, Bulb-outs, HV crosswalk, APS, Signal upgrade, Ped countdown |
Citywide programs
| Program | Type | Justification (2021–2025) |
|---|
| LPI + APS Rollout (~22 HIN intersections) |
SYS |
414 signal/ROW crashes (56 post-COVID KSI); LPI CMF=0.13–0.30 ped fatality reduction |
| LED Intersection Lighting (257 dark crashes, 43 KSI) |
LIGHT |
Dark KSI rate 15.1%→18.3%; 39.0% of ped KSI in dark; CMF=0.72 for dark crashes |
| Speed Feedback Signs + Road Diet Eval |
SPEED |
Unsafe Speed = #1 PCF with 176 crashes; KSI rate 7.2%→16.5%; 25 radar signs on HIN corridors |
What we bring & recommended ask
-
Active CCTA SS4A partner city — CCTSAP 2024 action plan in place. San Pablo is a named city in CCTA's FY2024 SS4A Planning & Demo Grant. The adopted CCTSAP 2024 provides the countywide action plan foundation. Self-Certification Worksheet must be completed to confirm implementation grant eligibility.
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+43.4% KSI rate shift — compelling post-COVID safety narrative. San Pablo’s severity shift (10.04%→14.4%) over equal 5-year windows demonstrates the precise data-backed deterioration SS4A reviewers prioritize. SWITRS analysis is complete across all 867 city-street collisions (2015–2025).
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FHWA Safe System HIN analysis complete. FHWA-weighted Safe System scoring across all 35 HIN corridors and 89 intersections. EL PORTAL DR (11 KSI) and RUMRILL BL (10 KSI) are the top-tier anchors for the application narrative and project location workbook.
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867 crashes analyzed with full multivariate breakdown. Pre/post-COVID KSI trends, 12 fatalities documented, ped/bike/alcohol/dark-condition patterns quantified. 159 ped (43 KSI), 257 dark (43 KSI), 148 alcohol (24 KSI) pools are pre-validated for grant narratives.
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HIN-to-countermeasure mapping complete — project identification is done. Every HIN corridor matched to FHWA-eligible countermeasures with cost ranges. Remaining work: formal application narrative, project workbook, and self-certification documentation.
Analysis basis: SWITRS/TIMS 2015–2025 (excl. 2020) · FHWA Safe System HIN methodology · SS4A NOFO FY2026 · CCTSAP 2024 (CCTA) · Deadline: May 26, 2026
SS4A FY2026 — Recommended Implementation Grant
Multi-Corridor HIN Implementation Package
$4.6M – $13.8M federal · 80% federal / 20% local
4 HIN intersections + 3 corridor programs + 3 citywide programs. Balanced portfolio: infrastructure (LPI, LED lighting, raised median, RRFB), speed management, and behavioral programs. EL PORTAL DR + RUMRILL BL anchor projects with 21 combined KSI provide the core safety case.
CCTA SS4A Partner (FY2024)
CCTSAP 2024 Adopted
⚡ Due May 26, 2026
SWITRS 2015–2025
+43% KSI rate
Why this application portfolio can win
C12 track record: 1 project, $0.78M funded — proven delivery
San Pablo won 1 HSIP project in C12 ($0.78M) — H12-04-111. Returning applicants with delivery history score higher. Each prior award provides a direct C13 scale-up template.
Collision profile maps precisely to highest-scoring C13 categories
Dark crashes: 257 (43 KSI) → BCR Lighting (avg C12 grant $1.84M)
Speed #1 PCF: 176 crashes — KSI rate 7.2%→16.5% → BCR Speed calming
Ped: 159 (43 KSI, 27.0% rate) → VRU Special Rule bonus
Bike: 78 (17 KSI) → SA-Bike set-aside
Signal/Broadside: 414 crashes → BCR Signal+LPI
HSIP award history & statewide comparables
San Pablo C12
$0.78M
1 prior project — direct C13 scale-up templates.
Long Beach C12
$9.7M
Retroreflective sign upgrade — comparable BCR scope for speed management application.
Glendale C12
$8.25M
Signal+LPI+APS citywide — model for BCR+VRU hybrid application.
Recommended C13 portfolio (2021–2025 crash data)
| Application |
Countermeasures |
Category |
Est. range |
Signal Modernization + VRU #1
236 broadside + 159 ped (43 KSI) |
LPI+APS at 22 HIN intersections, Retroreflective backplates, Protected LT, Countdown signals. Builds on H12-04-111. |
BCR VRU+ |
$3–7M |
Intersection LED Lighting #2
257 dark crashes (43 KSI); dark rate 15.1%→18.3% |
LED at 28 HIN intersections; corridor lighting on top 3 HIN corridors; retroreflective backplates |
BCR |
$1.5–4.5M |
Raised Median — EL PORTAL DR #3
EL PORTAL DR: 11 KSI + RUMRILL BL: 10 KSI |
Raised median channelization; restrict LT conflicts; ped refuge islands; Protected-permissive LT phasing |
BCR |
$2–6M |
SA-PedCrossing × 2
159 ped (43 KSI); 39.0% dark KSI rate |
RRFBs at unsignalized crossings on EL PORTAL DR + RUMRILL BL; curb extensions; ped refuge. |
SA-Ped |
2 × $400K |
SA-Bike Safety × 2
78 bike crashes (17 KSI); top HIN corridors |
Class IV separated bike lanes on EL PORTAL DR; bike detection at signals; green conflict zone markings. |
SA-Bike |
2 × $360K |
Speed + Retroreflective Signs
176 speed crashes (#1 PCF); KSI rate 7.2%→16.5% |
Dynamic speed feedback signs (25+); raised crosswalks; retroreflective sign upgrade citywide; automated enforcement study |
BCR |
$2–6M |
C13 Winning Portfolio Formula
App 1 — BCR+VRU: Signal+LPI+APS+Backplates$3–7M
App 2 — BCR: Intersection LED Lighting$1.5–4.5M
App 3 — BCR: Raised Median (EL PORTAL DR)$2–6M
Apps 4–5 — SA-PedCrossing × 2 (different corridors)2 × $400K
Apps 6–7 — SA-Bike Safety × 2 (different corridors)2 × $360K
App 8 — BCR: Speed Mgmt + Retroreflective Signs$1.5–4M
Total C13 target: $5M – $18M · 0% local match · VRU Special Rule qualifies (237 VRU crashes, 60 KSI)
San Pablo HSIP application history
| Project ID | Category | Award | Description |
|---|
H12-04-111 |
BCR |
$775K |
Signals+LPI+APS: San Pablo Ave corridor |
What we bring to this application
1 prior HSIP project prove San Pablo delivery. H12-04-111 (BCR, $775K). Each provides a direct template for C13 scale-up. Returning applicants with completion history are scored higher.
+43.4% KSI rate change — powerful post-COVID safety narrative. San Pablo's severity shift (10.04%→14.4%) demonstrates the precise safety deterioration HSIP C13 prioritizes. SWITRS 2021–2025 data is fully analyzed: 257 dark (43 KSI), 176 speed (20 KSI), 159 ped (43 KSI), 78 bike (17 KSI).
Post-COVID (2021–2025) crash pools pre-validated for BCR calculation. All HSIP project recommendations based on 5-year post-COVID data only. Crash pools are quantified by countermeasure category — each application has a pre-validated data foundation for BCR submission.
SA-Ped and SA-Bike set-asides are low-risk, high-return. Both SA-Ped and SA-Bike have 80%+ win rates in C12. 73 SA-Ped and 30 SA-Bike projects funded C12 statewide. Submit 2 applications per category on different corridors (EL PORTAL DR + RUMRILL BL).
C13 portfolio extends every prior HSIP investment in San Pablo. Signal/LPI from H12-04-111 scales to citywide LPI+APS at 22 HIN intersections. Each C13 application directly extends proven C12 work.
SWITRS/TIMS 2021–2025
1 prior HSIP wins (C12)
104 KSI · 12 fatals
BCR · SA-Ped · SA-Bike · VRU