Safety case & program alignment
-1.9% KSI rate post-COVID — El Cerrito's severity crisis requires urgent intervention
El Cerrito’s KSI rate shifted from 10.1% (2015–19) to 9.91% (2021–25) — a -1.9% change. Both volume and severity are rising — compounding the safety challenge. 11 post-COVID KSI across 19 HIN corridors demand immediate targeted investment.
CCTSAP 2024 countywide action plan — El Cerrito-specific appendix available for adoption
CCTA adopted the Countywide Comprehensive Transportation Safety Action Plan (CCTSAP 2024) — a USDOT-eligible action plan covering all Contra Costa cities including El Cerrito. The CCTSAP includes a city-specific appendix for El Cerrito. Upon local adoption resolution and completion of the USDOT Self-Certification Worksheet, El Cerrito can apply for a FY2026 SS4A Implementation Grant targeting $5–12M federal.
19
HIN corridors
identified
CCTSAP 2024
Countywide
action plan
Project breakdown by category (2021–2025 crash data)
| Category | Projects | Cost Est. | Focus locations |
|---|
| HIN Intersections |
4 |
$2.2M |
CENTRAL AV & OHLONE GREEN, CENTRAL AV & CARLSON BL — ranked by 2021–25 KSI |
| Corridor Programs |
3 |
$5.4M |
POTRERO AV, SAN PABLO AV, ARLINGTON BL — LPI + lighting + raised median |
| Citywide Programs |
2 |
$1.3M |
LPI+APS rollout, LED intersection lighting, |
⚡ Two-step path: Adopt CCTSAP appendix + complete Self-Certification Worksheet
Step 1: City Council adopts El Cerrito-specific CCTSAP appendix (available from CCTA). Step 2: Complete USDOT Self-Certification Worksheet confirming CCTSAP satisfies all required action plan components. If confirmed → submit FY2026 Implementation Grant by May 26, 2026. Contact CCTA for the El Cerrito appendix and eligibility guidance. Recommend pre-application USDOT review (due April 24, 2026).
Priority SS4A projects — 2021–2025 crash data
Tier 1 — Fatal & high-KSI corridors (2021–2025)
| Location | KSI | Fatal | Countermeasures |
POTRERO AV COR #1
17 crashes · 2 KSI · 0 fatal · 🔁 Persistent: era B 1 KSI |
2 |
0 |
Raised median, LPI+APS all signals, LED lighting, HV crosswalks, Ped countdown signals |
SAN PABLO AV COR #2
22 crashes · 2 KSI · 1 fatal · 🔁 Persistent: era B 0 KSI |
2 |
1 |
HAWK beacon, Protected LT, LPI+APS, LED lighting, Ped refuge islands, RRFBs, Speed calming |
ARLINGTON BL COR #3
14 crashes · 1 KSI · 0 fatal · ⚠️ Emerging: era B 1 KSI |
1 |
0 |
Class IV bike lanes, RRFB crossings, Ped refuge islands, LED lighting, LPI at signals |
CENTRAL AV COR #4
26 crashes · 1 KSI · 0 fatal · 🔁 Persistent: era B 0 KSI |
1 |
0 |
LPI, Bulb-outs, HV crosswalk, APS, Signal upgrade, Speed feedback signs |
CENTRAL AV & OHLONE GREENWAY INT #1
6 crashes · 0 KSI · 0 fatal |
0 |
0 |
LPI, Bulb-outs, HV crosswalk, APS, Signal upgrade, Ped countdown |
CENTRAL AV & CARLSON BL INT #2
5 crashes · 0 KSI · 0 fatal |
0 |
0 |
LPI, Bulb-outs, HV crosswalk, APS, Signal upgrade, Ped countdown |
Citywide programs
| Program | Type | Justification (2021–2025) |
|---|
| LPI + APS Rollout (~19 HIN intersections) |
SYS |
106 signal/ROW crashes (11 post-COVID KSI); LPI CMF=0.13–0.30 ped fatality reduction |
| LED Intersection Lighting (44 dark crashes, 6 KSI) |
LIGHT |
Dark KSI rate 17.4%→9.5%; 38.8% of ped KSI in dark; CMF=0.72 for dark crashes |
What we bring & recommended ask
-
CCTSAP 2024 provides the action plan foundation — El Cerrito-specific appendix available. CCTA's adopted countywide CCTSAP covers all CC cities. El Cerrito should adopt the city-specific appendix by Council resolution and complete the USDOT Self-Certification Worksheet to confirm implementation grant eligibility by May 26, 2026.
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-1.9% KSI rate shift — compelling post-COVID safety narrative. El Cerrito’s severity shift (10.1%→9.91%) over equal 5-year windows demonstrates the precise data-backed deterioration SS4A reviewers prioritize. SWITRS analysis is complete across all 210 city-street collisions (2015–2025).
-
FHWA Safe System HIN analysis complete. FHWA-weighted Safe System scoring across all 19 HIN corridors and 12 intersections. POTRERO AV (2 KSI) and SAN PABLO AV (2 KSI) are the top-tier anchors for the application narrative and project location workbook.
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210 crashes analyzed with full multivariate breakdown. Pre/post-COVID KSI trends, 1 fatalities documented, ped/bike/alcohol/dark-condition patterns quantified. 49 ped (8 KSI), 44 dark (6 KSI), 24 alcohol (3 KSI) pools are pre-validated for grant narratives.
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HIN-to-countermeasure mapping complete — project identification is done. Every HIN corridor matched to FHWA-eligible countermeasures with cost ranges. Remaining work: formal application narrative, project workbook, and self-certification documentation.
Analysis basis: SWITRS/TIMS 2015–2025 (excl. 2020) · FHWA Safe System HIN methodology · SS4A NOFO FY2026 · CCTSAP 2024 (CCTA) · Deadline: May 26, 2026
SS4A FY2026 — Recommended Implementation Grant
Multi-Corridor HIN Implementation Package
$4.5M – $13.3M federal · 80% federal / 20% local
4 HIN intersections + 3 corridor programs + 2 citywide programs. Balanced portfolio: infrastructure (LPI, LED lighting, raised median, RRFB), speed management, and behavioral programs. POTRERO AV + SAN PABLO AV anchor projects with 4 combined KSI provide the core safety case.
CCTSAP 2024 Countywide
City adoption recommended
⚡ Due May 26, 2026
SWITRS 2015–2025
-2% KSI rate
Why this application portfolio can win
C12 track record: 1 project, $0.54M funded — proven delivery
El Cerrito won 1 HSIP project in C12 ($0.54M) — H12-04-141. Returning applicants with delivery history score higher. Each prior award provides a direct C13 scale-up template.
Collision profile maps precisely to highest-scoring C13 categories
Dark crashes: 44 (6 KSI) → BCR Lighting (avg C12 grant $1.84M)
Ped: 49 (8 KSI, 16.3% rate) → VRU Special Rule bonus
Bike: 46 (7 KSI) → SA-Bike set-aside
Signal/Broadside: 106 crashes → BCR Signal+LPI
HSIP award history & statewide comparables
El Cerrito C12
$0.54M
1 prior project — direct C13 scale-up templates.
Long Beach C12
$9.7M
Retroreflective sign upgrade — comparable BCR scope for speed management application.
Glendale C12
$8.25M
Signal+LPI+APS citywide — model for BCR+VRU hybrid application.
Recommended C13 portfolio (2021–2025 crash data)
| Application |
Countermeasures |
Category |
Est. range |
Signal Modernization + VRU #1
76 broadside + 49 ped (8 KSI) |
LPI+APS at 19 HIN intersections, Retroreflective backplates, Protected LT, Countdown signals. Builds on H12-04-141. |
BCR VRU+ |
$3–7M |
Intersection LED Lighting #2
44 dark crashes (6 KSI); dark rate 17.4%→9.5% |
LED at 8 HIN intersections; corridor lighting on top 3 HIN corridors; retroreflective backplates |
BCR |
$1.5–4.5M |
Raised Median — POTRERO AV #3
POTRERO AV: 2 KSI + SAN PABLO AV: 2 KSI |
Raised median channelization; restrict LT conflicts; ped refuge islands; Protected-permissive LT phasing |
BCR |
$2–6M |
SA-PedCrossing × 2
49 ped (8 KSI); 38.8% dark KSI rate |
RRFBs at unsignalized crossings on POTRERO AV + SAN PABLO AV; curb extensions; ped refuge. |
SA-Ped |
2 × $400K |
SA-Bike Safety × 2
46 bike crashes (7 KSI); top HIN corridors |
Class IV separated bike lanes on POTRERO AV; bike detection at signals; green conflict zone markings. |
SA-Bike |
2 × $360K |
Motorcycle Safety + LED Lighting
8 motorcycle crashes (2 KSI, 25.0% KSI rate) |
LED at motorcycle crash nodes; speed feedback signs on HIN corridors; advanced stop bars; skid-resistant pavement |
BCR |
$800K–3M |
C13 Winning Portfolio Formula
App 1 — BCR+VRU: Signal+LPI+APS+Backplates$3–7M
App 2 — BCR: Intersection LED Lighting$1.5–4.5M
App 3 — BCR: Raised Median (POTRERO AV)$2–6M
Apps 4–5 — SA-PedCrossing × 2 (different corridors)2 × $400K
Apps 6–7 — SA-Bike Safety × 2 (different corridors)2 × $360K
Total C13 target: $5M – $18M · 0% local match · VRU Special Rule qualifies (95 VRU crashes, 15 KSI)
El Cerrito HSIP application history
| Project ID | Category | Award | Description |
|---|
H12-04-141 |
BCR |
$537K |
Signals+APS: San Pablo Ave & Potrero Ave |
What we bring to this application
1 prior HSIP project prove El Cerrito delivery. H12-04-141 (BCR, $537K). Each provides a direct template for C13 scale-up. Returning applicants with completion history are scored higher.
-1.9% KSI rate change — powerful post-COVID safety narrative. El Cerrito's severity shift (10.1%→9.91%) demonstrates the precise safety deterioration HSIP C13 prioritizes. SWITRS 2021–2025 data is fully analyzed: 44 dark (6 KSI), 12 speed (2 KSI), 49 ped (8 KSI), 46 bike (7 KSI).
Post-COVID (2021–2025) crash pools pre-validated for BCR calculation. All HSIP project recommendations based on 5-year post-COVID data only. Crash pools are quantified by countermeasure category — each application has a pre-validated data foundation for BCR submission.
SA-Ped and SA-Bike set-asides are low-risk, high-return. Both SA-Ped and SA-Bike have 80%+ win rates in C12. 73 SA-Ped and 30 SA-Bike projects funded C12 statewide. Submit 2 applications per category on different corridors (POTRERO AV + SAN PABLO AV).
C13 portfolio extends every prior HSIP investment in El Cerrito. Signal/LPI from H12-04-141 scales to citywide LPI+APS at 19 HIN intersections. Each C13 application directly extends proven C12 work.
SWITRS/TIMS 2021–2025
1 prior HSIP wins (C12)
21 KSI · 1 fatals
BCR · SA-Ped · SA-Bike · VRU