HSIP Cycle 13 — Grant Recommendations
Prioritized project recommendations based on HSIP program history + 2015–2025 Union City collision data · Based on 5-cycle HSIP history (C8–C12) + 2015–2025 Union City collision data (UNION_CITY_AP) · Union City: 5 wins, $3.59M total (C10+C12)
Portfolio Target:
$11.1M–$33.1M
$3.6M
HSIP Won (C10+C12)
5 projects, 2 cycles
5
Projects Funded
C10 (1) + C12 (4)
6
C13 Recommendations
BCR + VRU + Set-Aside
HSIP Grant Intelligence Module
Synthesized from Cross-Cycle Analysis (C8–C12), Countermeasure Trends, C12 Report & Funded Projects List
$3.59M
Union City HSIP Won
C10 + C12
5
Projects Funded
C10 (1) + C12 (4)
$1.15B
Program Total
1,281 projects C8–C12
$11–33M
C13 Portfolio Target
6 recommendations
Union City HSIP Application History
C13 Strategy — Countermeasure Trends
🚀 Rising Countermeasures
Gaining frequency & funding — prioritize for C13
LPI: 0→33 projects (C8→C12) · +33
RRFB/Beacons: 11→57 · +46
Retroreflective Backplates: 1→23 · +22
Bike Lanes/Buffered: 14→31 · +17
Bulb-Outs/Curb Extensions: 3→19 · +16
HAWK Signal: 4→11 · +7
Ped Refuge Islands: 1→8 · +7
⚠️ Declining / Saturated
Deprioritize or bundle only
Protected Left Turn: 36→17 · -19 (standalone)
Guardrail (BCR): declining competitiveness
Ped Countdown: 26→13 · -13 (saturated)
Roundabouts: 9→6 · inconsistent
Road Diet: 3→1 · rarely funded
Winning Project Formulas — C12 Evidence
🏆 Platinum Bundle
$5M–$10M · City-Wide Multimodal
Signal hardware + LPI + backplates + countdown + APS + HAWK. Glendale $8.25M, Riverside $7.8M.
🥇 Gold Bundle
$3M–$9M · Sign Upgrade
Fluorescent retro signs + sheeting + pavement markings. Long Beach $9.7M, Concord $7M.
🥈 Silver Bundle
$2M–$9M · Raised Median
Raised medians + restrict turns + lighting + ped refuge. Kern $8.7M, Anaheim $5M.
⛔ Deprioritize for C13
Standalone Countdown Signal — Saturated. Bundle with LPI only.
Small BCR (<$400K) — 75th percentile now $2M+. Bundle or go set-aside.
Standalone Protected LT — Eclipsed by LPI+backplate packages.
Standalone Sidewalk — High cost, low BCR. Always bundle.
82
KSI Total
2015–2025 excl. 2020
12
Fatalities
City streets
297
Visible Injuries
City streets
1,073
Total Collisions
City streets only
7.6%
Overall KSI Rate
82 / 1,073
17.8%
Alcohol KSI Rate
vs 6.4% non-alcohol
Annual collision trend by severity
2015–2025 excl. 2020 — gap in x-axis marks excluded year
Severity breakdown
All city street collisions
Collision type distribution
Count by type
Primary collision factor
Top contributing factors
Collisions by hour of day
Red=late night · Yellow=PM peak
Lighting conditions
At time of collision
Weather conditions
At time of collision
Motor vehicle involved with
What did the at-fault vehicle collide with?
Pedestrian movement at collision
Pedestrian-involved collisions only
High Injury Network Explorer
Safe System Score = (KSI/Total KSI × 30) + (Injury/Total Injury × 20) + (Intersection/Total Intersection × 10) + (Ped/Total Ped × 20) + (Bike/Total Bike × 20) · Click any row to expand
Metric:
Fatal present
KSI rate ≥10%
Standard HIN
Period Comparison
2015–2019 (5 yrs, pre-COVID) vs 2021–2025 (5 yrs, post-COVID) Equal 5-year windows · 2020 excluded · All metrics normalized per year or as ratesKSI rate per year — severity trending up or down?
Blue dots=2015–19 · Orange dots=2021–25 · The gap shows the era shift
Collisions per year by era
Volume trend (2020 excluded)
Collision type — KSI rate shift between eras
Blue=2015–19 · Orange=2021–25 · Higher = more deadly per incident
Primary collision factor — volume per year
Is the mix of causes changing?
HIN Corridor Rank Changes: 2015–2019 vs 2021–2025
Equal 5-yr periods · KSI/yr normalized. EMERGING entered HIN post-2020. COOLING left HIN. WORSENING KSI/yr ↑ >0.2. IMPROVING KSI/yr ↓ >0.2.
Filter Status:
HIN Intersections: 2015–2019 vs 2021–2025
The Safety Story: 2015–2019 vs 2021–2025
Equal 5-year periods · 2020 excluded · All stats normalized for fair comparisonFewer Crashes, Far More Deadly
+45.4% KSI rate
KSI rate rose from 6.4% (2015–19) to 9.3% (2021–25) — a 45% increase in lethality per collision. Volume dropped 24%, but each remaining crash is significantly more likely to be fatal or severe or seriously injure. Concord faces a severity crisis, not a volume crisis.
Speed Crashes: 65% More Lethal
2.3% → 3.8%
Speed-related KSI rate rose from 2.3% to 3.8% (65% increase). Volume dropped (172→78 crashes) but each speed crash is more deadly post-COVID. Speeding remains higher operating speeds are the likely driver.
Broadside Crashes: Fastest Worsening Type
4.3% → 8.9% KSI rate
7th St emerged with KSI in 2021–25 that was absent in 2015–19. Meanwhile Alvarado Blvd, San Andreas Dr, and Railroad Ave cooled. Union City's danger pattern has shifted post-COVID — only 5 corridors persist across both erasadar five years ago.
HIN Fragmentation: Danger Is Spreading
1 new street
Only 5 corridors appear in both 2015–19 and 2021–25 HINs: Whipple Rd, Alvarado Niles Rd, Dyer St, Union City Blvd, and Decoto Rd. These chronic corridors demand sustained multi-cycle investmentking targeted investment harder.
Alcohol: Real Progress, Still Critical
19.1% → 16.0%
Alcohol KSI rate fell from 19.1% to 16.0%. DUI volume: ~13/yr in both eras. A modest gain — but at 16.0%, alcohol crashes remain 2.5× more deadly than the city average (6.4%). Enforcement and education gains must be sustainedan non-alcohol. Progress is real but the work isn't done.
Head-On: The One Clear Win
-31% vol + KSI rate ↓
Sideswipe KSI rate dropped sharply from 13.7% to 2.3% — improving on lethality. Vehicle/Pedestrian crashes held steady (68 collisions each era) but remain the highest-KSI type at 17.6%.
Broadside: KSI Rate More Than Doubled
4.3% → 8.9% KSI rate
Broadside KSI rate more than doubled from 4.3% to 8.9% — the fastest-worsening type in Union City. Broadside crashes remain the most common type (355 total) and signal failures at key intersections.ect hazard audits on high-KSI corridors are warranted.
Intersection Hotspots: No Repeat Locations
0 repeat hotspots
Top intersections in era B (2021–25): Alvarado Niles Rd & Dyer St, Dyer St & Whipple Rd, Union City Blvd & Whipple Rd. Intersection KSI accounts for 40% of all Union City KSI — signalized control and LPI are criticald requires a citywide re-assessment of intersection treatments.
Whipple Rd & Alvarado Niles Rd: Chronic #1 & #2
14 KSI + 13 KSI
Whipple Rd (14 KSI) and Alvarado Niles Rd (13 KSI) are Union City's chronic danger corridors — present in both eras with high absolute KSI counts. Together they account for 33% of all city KSI and require multi-cycle HSIP investmentlti-year investment rather than one-time fixes.
9.3%
2021–2025 KSI Rate
6.4%
2015–2019 KSI Rate
The headline: Concord's streets are getting more dangerous per collision, not less — and the pattern is spreading.
Comparing equal 5-year pre- and post-COVID windows (2020 excluded from both), every severity metric worsened except fatality rate and alcohol KSI rate. Speed, hit-object crashes, and a fragmented HIN with 22 newly-dangerous streets are the dominant drivers. Without targeted intervention across Whipple Rd, Alvarado Niles Rd, and Dyer St — Union City's three chronic high-KSI corridors.
AI-Powered Safety Insights
Multivariate patterns · 2015–2025 (excl. 2020) · Hard-to-discern findings ranked by policy impact
Alcohol Multiplier Effect
2.8×
Alcohol-involved KSI rate: 17.8% vs 6.4% non-alcohol. 11% of collisions but 25.6% of all KSI.
DUI EnforcementDarkness Amplifies Severity
38.5%
Of pedestrian collisions occur in dark or low-light conditions. Dark-condition ped crashes are 2.0× more likely to be KSI than daytime (26.7% vs 13.1%).
Street LightingCrosswalk False Security
21.3%
KSI rate outside crosswalk. Peds in a crosswalk face 17.3% KSI rate. Both settings carry high risk — signal timing, lighting and crosswalk improvements needed.
Ped InfrastructureLate Night KSI Spike
14.1%
KSI rate 0–5 AM is 2.2× higher than midday (6.3%). 7.3% of collisions but 13.4% of KSI — concentrated high-risk overnight window.
High-Severity WindowAlcohol + Dark: Compound Risk
18.4%
Alcohol AND dark: KSI rate hits 18.4% — 2.4× city average. 7.1% of collisions, disproportionate harm. Night enforcement and lighting are the key levers.
Compound RiskWeekend Night Danger Window
11.1%
Fri/Sat/Sun after 9 PM: 11.1% KSI rate — 1.5× the city average. Targeted enforcement on these nights addresses disproportionate KSI concentration.
Enforcement TimingCollision type × severity heatmap
Darker red = higher KSI rate
KSI rate by time window
Late night is 3.5× more dangerous than midday
Annual KSI vs total collisions
Volume declining but KSI rate rising — the key trend
Top 5 corridor persistence
Dangerous year after year
Pedestrian KSI by lighting × movement
Daylight paradox: most incidents daytime but dark is far deadlier
Day of week — volume vs KSI divergence
Weekdays higher volume; weekends higher KSI rate
View:
Projects:
Severity
Fatal
Severe Injury
Visible Injury
Complaint of Pain
Flags
Pedestrian
Bicycle
Motorcycle
Alcohol
SS4A Projects
Plan A — Intersection/Citywide
Plan B — Corridor Focus
Plan C — Hybrid (Recommended)
HIN Corridor