HSIP Cycle 13 — Grant Recommendations
Prioritized project recommendations based on HSIP program history + 2015–2025 Hayward collision data · Based on 5-cycle HSIP history (C8–C12) + 2015–2025 Hayward collision data (HAYWARD_AP) · Hayward: 5 wins, $3.59M total (C10+C12)
Portfolio Target:
$11.1M–$33.1M
$3.6M
HSIP Won (C10+C12)
5 projects, 2 cycles
5
Projects Funded
C10 (1) + C12 (4)
6
C13 Recommendations
BCR + VRU + Set-Aside
HSIP Grant Intelligence Module
Synthesized from Cross-Cycle Analysis (C8–C12), Countermeasure Trends, C12 Report & Funded Projects List
$3.59M
Hayward HSIP Won
C10 + C12
5
Projects Funded
C10 (1) + C12 (4)
$1.15B
Program Total
1,281 projects C8–C12
$11–33M
C13 Portfolio Target
6 recommendations
Hayward HSIP Application History
C13 Strategy — Countermeasure Trends
🚀 Rising Countermeasures
Gaining frequency & funding — prioritize for C13
LPI: 0→33 projects (C8→C12) · +33
RRFB/Beacons: 11→57 · +46
Retroreflective Backplates: 1→23 · +22
Bike Lanes/Buffered: 14→31 · +17
Bulb-Outs/Curb Extensions: 3→19 · +16
HAWK Signal: 4→11 · +7
Ped Refuge Islands: 1→8 · +7
⚠️ Declining / Saturated
Deprioritize or bundle only
Protected Left Turn: 36→17 · -19 (standalone)
Guardrail (BCR): declining competitiveness
Ped Countdown: 26→13 · -13 (saturated)
Roundabouts: 9→6 · inconsistent
Road Diet: 3→1 · rarely funded
Winning Project Formulas — C12 Evidence
🏆 Platinum Bundle
$5M–$10M · City-Wide Multimodal
Signal hardware + LPI + backplates + countdown + APS + HAWK. Glendale $8.25M, Riverside $7.8M.
🥇 Gold Bundle
$3M–$9M · Sign Upgrade
Fluorescent retro signs + sheeting + pavement markings. Long Beach $9.7M, Concord $7M.
🥈 Silver Bundle
$2M–$9M · Raised Median
Raised medians + restrict turns + lighting + ped refuge. Kern $8.7M, Anaheim $5M.
⛔ Deprioritize for C13
Standalone Countdown Signal — Saturated. Bundle with LPI only.
Small BCR (<$400K) — 75th percentile now $2M+. Bundle or go set-aside.
Standalone Protected LT — Eclipsed by LPI+backplate packages.
Standalone Sidewalk — High cost, low BCR. Always bundle.
308
KSI Total
2015–2025 excl. 2020
53
Fatalities
City streets
785
Visible Injuries
City streets
2,927
Total Collisions
City streets only
10.5%
Overall KSI Rate
308 / 2,927
21.1%
Alcohol KSI Rate
vs 9.0% non-alcohol
Annual collision trend by severity
2015–2025 excl. 2020 — gap in x-axis marks excluded year
Severity breakdown
All city street collisions
Collision type distribution
Count by type
Primary collision factor
Top contributing factors
Collisions by hour of day
Red=late night · Yellow=PM peak
Lighting conditions
At time of collision
Weather conditions
At time of collision
Motor vehicle involved with
What did the at-fault vehicle collide with?
Pedestrian movement at collision
Pedestrian-involved collisions only
High Injury Network Explorer
Safe System Score = (KSI/Total KSI × 30) + (Injury/Total Injury × 20) + (Intersection/Total Intersection × 10) + (Ped/Total Ped × 20) + (Bike/Total Bike × 20) · Click any row to expand
Metric:
Fatal present
KSI rate ≥10%
Standard HIN
Period Comparison
2015–2019 (5 yrs, pre-COVID) vs 2021–2025 (5 yrs, post-COVID) Equal 5-year windows · 2020 excluded · All metrics normalized per year or as ratesKSI rate per year — severity trending up or down?
Blue dots=2015–19 · Orange dots=2021–25 · The gap shows the era shift
Collisions per year by era
Volume trend (2020 excluded)
Collision type — KSI rate shift between eras
Blue=2015–19 · Orange=2021–25 · Higher = more deadly per incident
Primary collision factor — volume per year
Is the mix of causes changing?
HIN Corridor Rank Changes: 2015–2019 vs 2021–2025
Equal 5-yr periods · KSI/yr normalized. EMERGING entered HIN post-2020. COOLING left HIN. WORSENING KSI/yr ↑ >0.2. IMPROVING KSI/yr ↓ >0.2.
Filter Status:
HIN Intersections: 2015–2019 vs 2021–2025
The Safety Story: 2015–2019 vs 2021–2025
Equal 5-year periods · 2020 excluded · All stats normalized for fair comparisonFewer Crashes, Far More Deadly
+21.8% KSI rate
KSI rate rose from 7.49% (2015–19) to 9.12% (2021–25) — a 21.8% increase in lethality per collision. Volume dropped ~9%/yr, but each crash is 22% more likely to kill or seriously injure. Concord faces a severity crisis, not a volume crisis.
Speed Crashes: 116% More Lethal
2.4% → 5.2%
Speed-related KSI rate more than doubled — from 2.4% to 5.2% (117% increase). Volume dropped slightly but each speed crash is dramatically more deadly. Post-pandemic higher operating speeds are the likely driver.
Concord Ave: Most Alarming Emergence
Not ranked → #3
Concord Ave was not in the top-20 in 2015–2019 (KSI rate: 1.8%). By 2021–2025 it reached #3 citywide at a 14.5% KSI rate. This street needs immediate intervention — it wasn't on the radar five years ago.
HIN Fragmentation: Danger Is Spreading
22 new streets
The HIN gained 22 new streets in 2021–25 not present in 2015–19, while 15 cooled down. Only 12 corridors persist across both periods — danger is spreading citywide making targeted investment harder.
Alcohol: Real Progress, Still Critical
22.6% → 16.0%
Alcohol KSI rate fell from 22.6% to 16.0%. DUI volume held steady at ~30/yr. A genuine win — but at 16.0%, alcohol crashes remain 2.4× more deadly than non-alcohol. Progress is real but the work isn't done.
Head-On: The One Clear Win
-31% vol + KSI rate ↓
Head-on volume dropped 31% AND KSI rate fell from 15.0% to 9.7% — the only type improving on both dimensions. Understanding what drove this could inform broader strategy.
Hit Object: Silent Escalation
+63% volume surge
Hit Object collisions surged 63% in volume (24→37/yr) with a persistent 13.9% KSI rate. More frequent AND consistently deadly — the fastest-deteriorating collision category. Fixed-object hazard audits on high-KSI corridors are warranted.
Intersection Hotspots Shifted Completely
Only 4 persist
Only 4 intersection hotspots appear in both 2015–19 and 2021–25. The near-complete turnover reinforces fragmentation — Concord's danger pattern has fundamentally changed post-COVID and requires a citywide re-assessment of intersection treatments.
Clayton Rd & Willow Pass: Still #1 & #2
Ranks held
Despite all the change, Clayton Rd and Willow Pass Rd have held the top two spots. Willow Pass rate actually worsened (7.8%→9.4%). These are Concord's chronic danger corridors — they need sustained multi-year investment rather than one-time fixes.
9.12%
2021–2025 KSI Rate
7.49%
2015–2019 KSI Rate
The headline: Concord's streets are getting more dangerous per collision, not less — and the pattern is spreading.
Comparing equal 5-year pre- and post-COVID windows (2020 excluded from both), every severity metric worsened except fatality rate and alcohol KSI rate. Speed, hit-object crashes, and a fragmented HIN with 22 newly-dangerous streets are the dominant drivers. Without targeted intervention — especially on emerging corridors like Concord Ave — this trajectory will continue.
AI-Powered Safety Insights
Multivariate patterns · 2015–2025 (excl. 2020) · Hard-to-discern findings ranked by policy impact
Alcohol Multiplier Effect
2.8×
Alcohol-involved KSI rate: 19.2% vs 6.8% non-alcohol. ~8% of collisions but 21% of all KSI.
DUI EnforcementDarkness Amplifies Severity
56%
Of pedestrian KSI occur in dark conditions. After-dark ped collisions are 3× more likely fatal or severe than daytime.
Street LightingCrosswalk False Security
40.6%
KSI rate outside crosswalk. Peds in a crosswalk still face 18.5% KSI rate. Physical protection needed.
Ped InfrastructureLate Night KSI Spike
19.0%
KSI rate 0–5 AM is 3.5× higher than midday (5.0%). Only 5.5% of collisions but ~12% of KSI.
High-Severity WindowAlcohol + Dark: Compound Risk
21.8%
Alcohol AND dark: KSI rate hits 21.8% — 2.7× city average. 7.6% of collisions, disproportionate harm.
Compound RiskWeekend Night Danger Window
15.1%
Fri/Sat/Sun after 9 PM: 15.1% KSI rate. Targeted enforcement these 3 nights addresses disproportionate fatal collisions.
Enforcement TimingCollision type × severity heatmap
Darker red = higher KSI rate
KSI rate by time window
Late night is 3.5× more dangerous than midday
Annual KSI vs total collisions
Volume declining but KSI rate rising — the key trend
Top 5 corridor persistence
Dangerous year after year
Pedestrian KSI by lighting × movement
Daylight paradox: most incidents daytime but dark is far deadlier
Day of week — volume vs KSI divergence
Weekdays higher volume; weekends higher KSI rate
View:
Projects:
Severity
Fatal
Severe Injury
Visible Injury
Complaint of Pain
Flags
Pedestrian
Bicycle
Motorcycle
Alcohol
SS4A Projects
Plan A — Intersection/Citywide
Plan B — Corridor Focus
Plan C — Hybrid (Recommended)
HIN Corridor